For most online stores, the stretch from Black Friday to Christmas is the busiest time of the year. People search for gifts, compare prices and decide fast – and once the last delivery date passes, purchases drop off sharply. We’ll show you how to adjust your budget, bid strategies and ads for this period so you don’t pay for clicks that will never turn into orders.
How customer behavior changes during the season
For most online stores, the run-up to Christmas follows a similar pattern. Sales rise around Black Friday, stay strong in the first weeks of December and drop sharply after the date when a package can no longer arrive in time for Christmas. After the holidays comes a short period of returns, exchanges and January sales.
Your campaigns should follow this pattern. Keeping the same daily budget and the same ads from November to January means you’re short of money on the strongest days and spending it for nothing after the delivery deadline.
Budget: plan by week, not by month
- Look at last season. If your account has data from last year, compare revenue and costs week by week, not for the whole month.
- Use Performance Planner in Google Ads. It estimates what a higher or lower budget would bring for each campaign.
- Add money gradually. If a profitable campaign shows the status “Limited by budget,” that’s the first place to add money.
- Expect fluctuations. On some days, Google may spend more than your daily budget and balance it out on other days. Over a month, though, it won’t spend more than your daily budget multiplied by the average number of days in a month.
If you’re not sure what amount to start with, our recommended budget calculator can help.
Bid strategies during the season
Most online stores today use automated bid strategies (Smart Bidding). With these, Google sets the cost per click itself based on how likely a purchase is. Examples include Maximize conversions, target cost per action (Target CPA) and target return on ad spend (Target ROAS). A conversion is an action you count as success – in an online store, typically an order.
Don’t change your strategy right before the season
After you change a strategy or significantly change its targets, the campaign goes through a learning period when results are less stable. If you want to change your strategy, do it well in advance, not a week before Black Friday.
Seasonality adjustments for short peaks
Smart Bidding accounts for normal seasonal swings on its own. But if you expect a major change in conversion rate during a short sale, you can tell Google in advance with seasonality adjustments. Google recommends them for short events lasting one to seven days, such as Black Friday weekend. Details are in the Google Ads documentation.
Target ROAS: more orders or a higher margin?
If you use target return on ad spend (ROAS – the ratio of revenue to ad costs), decide what matters more to you this season. A lower target lets the campaign go after more orders with less profit on each one. A higher target protects your margin but can limit sales on exactly the days when people buy the most. If you’re offering discounts, keep in mind that the point at which your ads start making money has shifted.
If your store runs on Performance Max campaigns, also read our article on when PMax campaigns are a gold mine and when they just burn money.
Delivery deadlines in your ads and on your website
The last day you can still deliver before Christmas is the most important date of the season for an online store. Agree on it with your carrier and communicate it everywhere:
- On your website: a header bar with the deadline, plus a note on product pages and in the cart.
- In your ads: the deadline in the ad text or descriptions. In responsive search ads, you can also add a countdown to a specific date.
- In Merchant Center: update your shipping settings – handling time and transit time – so Google shows the correct delivery estimate.
- After the deadline: switch your copy to in-store pickup, express delivery (if you offer it) or e-gift cards. Turn off ads that promise delivery in time for Christmas. Automated rules that make the change at a set time can help.
What to do after Christmas
- Don’t cut the budget to a minimum overnight for campaigns that will keep running. Large, sudden budget changes can throw off the performance of campaigns with automated bidding. Scale them down gradually.
- Remove ads with a Christmas message and pull seasonal products.
- Make the most of the exchange and gift card period – people are looking for places to redeem them.
- In January, offer a clearance sale and use remarketing to reach people who didn’t buy in December. Remarketing means ads for people who have already visited your website.
- Review the season: which campaigns and products made money and where you spent for nothing.
A practical calendar for a small online store
- Early November: check conversion tracking, your product feed and shipping settings, and prepare your ads. Leave your bid strategy alone from here on.
- The week before Black Friday: raise budgets for campaigns that make money, and set up a seasonality adjustment and promotion assets that show your offer right next to the ad.
- After Black Friday: adjust budgets based on results and shift the focus to gifts and Christmas categories.
- Early December: communicate the last delivery date in your ads and on your website.
- After the delivery deadline: turn off delivery promises, switch on gift cards and in-store pickup, and lower your budgets.
- After Christmas: clearance sales, remarketing and a review of the season.
Frequently asked questions
How much should I increase my budget before Christmas?
There’s no universal number. Go by last season’s data, Performance Planner and whether your campaigns are hitting their budget limits. Add money where your ads demonstrably make a profit.
Should I switch from manual to automated bidding before the season?
If you do, do it well in advance. An automated strategy needs time and enough conversions to learn. Switching right before Black Friday is an unnecessary risk.
What should I do with my ads when I can no longer deliver before Christmas?
Change the message: in-store pickup, an e-gift card or delivery after the holidays with a clear date. Turn off ads that promise delivery in time for Christmas.
When should I scale back campaigns after the holidays?
Gradually after the delivery deadline, and then again after Christmas. Keep brand and remarketing campaigns running, because gift exchanges and January sales bring in purchases after the holidays too.
If you want to get through the season without stress and without wasted money, take a look at our Google Ads management. We set up campaigns in an account that’s yours – not ours – and after the season, we’ll show you what made money.
